Late on the 09th into early 10th, a strong trough at 500mb moved quickly eastward along 40N into south-central Europe. As the frontal system then continued moving quickly southeast-ward to near southern Italy, strong low pressure then began to develop over the southern Balkans as the mid-level trough strengthened significantly. By the middle of the 10th, this new low center was located near the Dardanelles Strait, with a central pressure of 993mb. Later on the 10th and into the 11th this low center lifted rapidly northeastward into the Black Sea and continued to deepen, with a central pressure of 986mb as it moved just west of the Crimean peninsula.

The low center position, quick movement, and rapid strengthening allowed winds to increase and seas to funnel directly into the Kerch Strait, where sea depths range from approximately 7-12m, generating storm force south-southwesterly winds and 5-7 meter seas/swells into the entrance of the strait which lies unprotected from the south. All ships in the southern portion of Kerch Strait were impacted by this brief yet powerful surge.

As many as 10 vessels sank or ran aground in the Kerch Strait and northern Black Sea. The most notable included the Russian tanker M/T Volgoneft-139, which broke apart while anchored and sank southwest of Tuzla Island, spilling at least 1200 metric tons of fuel oil, which was estimated at the time to be "the worst environmental disaster in the region in years". In addition, several bulk carriers hauling sulfur (vessels 3, 4, and 5 in the image below) also sank southwest of Tuzla Island. The environmental impacts of these spills were estimated to be low.

Weathernews had several ships under our service in the area during the time of the storm, with no reports of damage. The m/v Anastasia S reported southwest winds of 45 knots, gusting to 55 knots, when it was located about 50 nautical miles south of the Kerch Strait right around the time of maximum storm intensity. The vessel also reported "very high" seas at the time.

Weathernews forecasts for vessels leaving western Black Sea ports (such as Odessa and Ilichevsk) were accurate, with 48-hour forecasts of strong gale conditions, and westerly fetch limited waves/swells up to 4 meters. Overall, this storm was also well forecast by the global forecast models, with 84-, 72-, 60-, and 48-hour forecasts all within 150-200 nautical miles, and 2-3 mb, of the actual verification position and intensity.